EdgeForge methodology
A research verdict should show its work.
EdgeForge currently uses transparent, market-derived rules. It compares posted sportsbook prices, paired no-vig consensus, coverage and freshness. It does not present an unaudited black-box prediction as certainty.
Six-step process
From posted odds to an explainable label.
Collect the posted market
EdgeForge normalizes available events, players, market names, lines, sides, sportsbooks, prices and quote timestamps.
Match identical selections
Comparisons require the same player or team, market, side and line. Similar-looking selections are not treated as identical.
Convert price to probability
American odds are converted into implied break-even probabilities so differently priced selections can be compared consistently.
Remove paired market margin
When both sides are available, their probabilities are normalized to create a paired no-vig market reference.
Grade the evidence
Book count, paired-side availability and quote freshness determine whether the market evidence is strong, limited or incomplete.
Explain the verdict
PRIME, WATCH or PASS summarizes the market-derived checks. The inputs remain visible so the label can be inspected.
American odds
Implied break-even probability.
Negative odds: absolute odds ÷ (absolute odds + 100).
Positive odds: 100 ÷ (odds + 100).
At -120, the implied break-even probability is approximately 54.5%. At +150, it is 40%.
Paired no-vig consensus
Normalize both sides.
Sportsbook prices normally include margin. When matched over and under prices are available, EdgeForge converts both to implied probabilities and divides each side by their combined total. That normalization creates a market-derived reference; it is not a guarantee or independent prediction.
Verdict language
PRIME, WATCH and PASS describe the evidence.
PRIME
The price difference, book coverage, paired market and freshness clear the strongest configured research thresholds.
WATCH
A favorable price may be present, but the supporting market evidence does not clear every strongest threshold.
PASS
The market is thin, stale, unmatched or does not show enough price value under the current rules.
Current thresholds
PRIME is intentionally harder to earn.
PRIME requires a paired no-vig reference, at least 4% price edge, five or more books and a reliability score of 70 or higher. WATCH requires at least 1.5% edge, three books and 55 reliability. A slate can return zero PRIME lines.
Edge Score
A ranking score—not a forecast.
Edge Score combines up to 35 points from reliability, 45 from price value and 20 from sportsbook depth. It orders lines inside each verdict and is never forced above or below a cutoff just because a card is PRIME, WATCH or PASS.
Reliability is not win probability. It measures the quality and completeness of the available market evidence. A PRIME selection can lose, and a PASS selection can win.
Limitations and review
What the method cannot know.
Methodology last reviewed September 14, 2026. EdgeForge may refine thresholds as data coverage and result calibration improve; material changes will be reflected on this page.
Inspect the evidence
Use the label, then verify the line.
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